Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 52% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 9.9 but the actual margin was 68 points. The game's 188 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 168. Gold Coast SUNS led 34–65 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 191.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Richmond
48%
Gold Coast SUNS
52%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Gold Coast SUNS a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 74-point ELO rating advantage (1515 vs 1441). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Richmond by 9.9 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.16
Winner ✓
Edge
-33.9%
Line / Spread
Richmond +34.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
-33.9%
Margin Band
Richmond 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 191.5 @1.86
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WLLLL | 74.9 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWLLL | 87.5 |
Avg Conceded
70.5
Richmond
88.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
20.2
Richmond
23.0
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
360.0
Richmond
359.3
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
42.8
Richmond
52.3
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
52%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +9.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.