Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Port Adelaide to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 26.8 but the actual margin was 63 points. The game's 203 points came in 36 points higher than the predicted 167. Port Adelaide led 67–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 63. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
59%
Essendon
41%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Essendon are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Port Adelaide carry a 150-point ELO rating advantage (1435 vs 1285). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 26.8 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.5%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -18.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
-13.5%
Margin Band
Port Adelaide 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 186.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 64.0 |
Essendon | WLLLL | 68.8 |
Avg Conceded
101.6
Port Adelaide
96.6
Essendon
Avg Margin
-37.6
Port Adelaide
-27.8
Essendon
Disposals
318.0
Port Adelaide
358.2
Essendon
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
Essendon
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 27 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: +26.8
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.