Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 64% probability. The predicted margin of 6.2 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. Hawthorn trailed 43–44 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 99–82. The model went 3/4 on this match. The under 187.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
64%
Sydney Swans
36%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Sydney Swans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 40-point ELO rating advantage (1567 vs 1527). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 6.2 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.39
Winner ✓
Edge
-8.0%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -18.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.0%
Margin Band
Hawthorn 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | WWLLL | 71.0 |
Sydney Swans | WLLLL | 102.6 |
Avg Conceded
76.3
Hawthorn
76.6
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
0.8
Hawthorn
15.3
Sydney Swans
Disposals
336.7
Hawthorn
345.9
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
56.9
Hawthorn
57.7
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +6.2
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.