Win Probability
AI Game Review
St Kilda defied the model's 58% prediction for GWS GIANTS — a notable result. The predicted margin of 5.5 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 183.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
58%
St Kilda
42%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though St Kilda are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 5.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.48
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-9.3%
Margin Band
GWS GIANTS 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 183.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWWLL | 70.2 |
St Kilda | WWLLL | 98.2 |
Avg Conceded
85.5
GWS GIANTS
96.7
St Kilda
Avg Margin
1.6
GWS GIANTS
1.9
St Kilda
Disposals
330.9
GWS GIANTS
355.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
55.6
GWS GIANTS
42.5
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.