AFL | Round 2

alphr.com.au

ADE
Adelaide Crows
VS
WBD
Western Bulldogs
ADELAIDE OVAL • FRIDAY 20 MAR, 7:40 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Western Bulldogs defied the model's 61% prediction for Adelaide Crows — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.8 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 195.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

61%Adelaide CrowsFavourite

Adelaide Crows

61%

Western Bulldogs

39%

✨

AI Match Overview

Adelaide Crows hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Western Bulldogs are far from out of this at 39%. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Adelaide Crows counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1578 vs 1521). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 5.8 points with a combined total of 168.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Adelaide Crows to Win @1.92

Lost ✗

Edge

+9.0%

✗

Line / Spread

Adelaide Crows +0.5 @1.89

Lost ✗

Edge

+9.0%

✗

Margin Band

Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 195.5 @1.87

Winner ✓

Edge

+1.5%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Adelaide Crows
WWLLL
99.0
Western Bulldogs
WWLLL
73.0

Avg Conceded

67.9

Adelaide Crows

87.8

Western Bulldogs

Avg Margin

24.9

Adelaide Crows

29.0

Western Bulldogs

Disposals

374.6

Adelaide Crows

346.5

Western Bulldogs

Inside 50s

54.2

Adelaide Crows

50.8

Western Bulldogs

H2H History (Last 5)Adelaide Crows lead 3-2
Jul 2025ADE 109 - 98 WBD
Aug 2024ADE 111 - 72 WBD
May 2023ADE 40 - 85 WBD
Apr 2022ADE 63 - 62 WBD
Jul 2021ADE 56 - 105 WBD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1578 vs 1521), but the market favours Adelaide Crows (@1.92).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

ADE
1521Overall1578
WBD
ELO difference: -57 in favour of Western Bulldogs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1015Midfield1030
WBD +14
1011Forwards1088
WBD +77
979Defence1050
WBD +71
1036Ruck1037
Even

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

ADE
Stat
WBD
2.4
Wins (Last 5)
2.1
99.0pts
Avg Score
73.0pts
67.9pts
Avg Conceded
87.8pts
24.9pts
Avg Margin
29.0pts
374.6
Disposals
346.5
54.2
Inside 50s
50.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Bulldogs
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Bulldogs
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
Crows
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Bulldogs
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Bulldogs
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
Crows
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

61%

Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.8

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props