Win Probability
AI Game Review
North Melbourne defied the model's 64% prediction for Port Adelaide — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.7 but the actual margin was 46 points. North Melbourne led 53–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 46. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed. The under 187.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
36%
Port Adelaide
64%
AI Match Overview
Port Adelaide hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though North Melbourne are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Port Adelaide ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Port Adelaide carry a 79-point ELO rating advantage (1530 vs 1451). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 2.7 points with a combined total of 169.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Port Adelaide to Win @1.57
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.7%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +10.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.7%
Margin Band
North Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 187.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.1%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WWLLL | 105.7 |
Port Adelaide | WWWWL | 81.3 |
Avg Conceded
85.4
North Melbourne
92.7
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
28.4
North Melbourne
15.7
Port Adelaide
Disposals
347.0
North Melbourne
332.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
43.9
North Melbourne
45.5
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Port Adelaide predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 169 · Line: +2.7
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AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.