Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
87%
St Kilda
13%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 87%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Melbourne counter with Venue Advantage which tips the scales. St Kilda carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1455). Recent form favours St Kilda with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 30.5 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @2.45
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.5%
Line / Spread
Melbourne +10.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.5%
Margin Band
Melbourne 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 179.5 @1.87
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WLLLL | 73.4 |
St Kilda | WWLLL | 89.6 |
Avg Conceded
82.8
Melbourne
87.0
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-9.4
Melbourne
2.6
St Kilda
Disposals
339.0
Melbourne
360.8
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
87%
Melbourne predicted to win by 31 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +30.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.