AFL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

GCS
Gold Coast SUNS
VS
WCE
West Coast Eagles
PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM • SUNDAY 15 MAR, 6:10 PM

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Gold Coast SUNS defied the model's 52% prediction for West Coast Eagles — a notable result. The margin model missed here — predicting 12.3 but the actual margin was 59 points. The game's 203 points came in 34 points higher than the predicted 169. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

AI Win Probability

52%West Coast EaglesFavourite

Gold Coast SUNS

48%

West Coast Eagles

52%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives West Coast Eagles a marginal 52% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees West Coast Eagles ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. West Coast Eagles carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1484). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 12.3 points with a combined total of 169.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

West Coast Eagles to Win @21.00

Lost ✗

Edge

+47.0%

✗

Line / Spread

West Coast Eagles +68.5 @1.89

Winner ✓

Edge

+47.0%

✓

Margin Band

Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @3.30

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 187.5 @1.89

Lost ✗

Edge

+2.1%

✗

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Gold Coast SUNS
WLLLL
106.5
West Coast Eagles
WWLLL
82.5

Avg Conceded

80.1

Gold Coast SUNS

90.5

West Coast Eagles

Avg Margin

13.5

Gold Coast SUNS

-5.6

West Coast Eagles

Disposals

335.7

Gold Coast SUNS

346.7

West Coast Eagles

Inside 50s

50.7

Gold Coast SUNS

47.0

West Coast Eagles

H2H History (Last 5)Gold Coast SUNS lead 4-1
Mar 2025GCS 136 - 49 WCE
Aug 2024GCS 87 - 97 WCE
Apr 2024GCS 112 - 75 WCE
May 2023GCS 113 - 43 WCE
Jul 2022GCS 107 - 104 WCE
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1509 vs 1484), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.05).

The model sides with ELO — West Coast Eagles predicted to win despite longer odds.

📊Team ELO Ratings

GCS
1484Overall1509
WCE
ELO difference: -25 in favour of West Coast Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1006Midfield966
GCS +40
946Forwards961
WCE +14
1043Defence1055
WCE +12
927Ruck1045
WCE +118

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GCS
Stat
WCE
1.5
Wins (Last 5)
1.8
106.5pts
Avg Score
82.5pts
80.1pts
Avg Conceded
90.5pts
13.5pts
Avg Margin
-5.6pts
335.7
Disposals
346.7
50.7
Inside 50s
47.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Eagles
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
SUNS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
—
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
Eagles
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Eagles
6
Venue Advantage7.0%
SUNS
7
H2H History6.0%
—

Model Confidence

52%

West Coast Eagles predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 169 · Line: +12.3

1/4 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props