Win Probability
AI Game Review
Geelong Cats defied the model's 61% prediction for Fremantle — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 210 points came in 42 points higher than the predicted 168. Geelong Cats trailed 52–74 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 110–100. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
39%
Fremantle
61%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 39%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO — but Fremantle counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 110-point ELO rating advantage (1632 vs 1522). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Geelong Cats by 5.9 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @2.63
Lost ✗
Edge
+22.5%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +13.5 @1.89
Winner ✓
Edge
+22.5%
Margin Band
Geelong Cats 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.86
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 110.6 |
Fremantle | WLLLL | 84.0 |
Avg Conceded
78.6
Geelong Cats
85.2
Fremantle
Avg Margin
32.0
Geelong Cats
-1.2
Fremantle
Disposals
344.4
Geelong Cats
358.8
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Fremantle predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.