Win Probability
AI Game Review
Hawthorn defied the model's 74% prediction for Essendon — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 33.9 but the actual margin was 62 points. The game's 228 points came in 58 points higher than the predicted 170. Hawthorn led 39–83 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 62. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Essendon
74%
Hawthorn
26%
AI Match Overview
Essendon are clear favourites here at 74%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Hawthorn. Hawthorn are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Essendon counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Hawthorn carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1540 vs 1483). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 33.9 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @4.45
Lost ✗
Edge
+52.0%
Line / Spread
Essendon +29.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+52.0%
Margin Band
Essendon 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | WLLLL | 95.0 |
Hawthorn | WWLLL | 109.8 |
Avg Conceded
80.1
Essendon
86.7
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-1.4
Essendon
13.2
Hawthorn
Disposals
379.4
Essendon
352.9
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
56.2
Essendon
52.9
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
74%
Essendon predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +33.9
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.