Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 5.1 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 168 was close to the actual 172 — within 4 points. Adelaide Crows led 32–35 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. A clean sweep — all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
33%
Adelaide Crows
67%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Midfield ELO, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form — but Adelaide Crows counter with ELO Difference and Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Adelaide Crows carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1559 vs 1488). The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 5.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @2.12
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.0%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +4.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.0%
Margin Band
Adelaide Crows 1-39 @3.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.88
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWLL | 80.8 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 71.0 |
Avg Conceded
81.8
Collingwood
86.0
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-1.0
Collingwood
-15.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
347.2
Collingwood
311.4
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Adelaide Crows hold the ELO advantage (1559 vs 1488), but the market favours Collingwood (@1.89).
The model sides with ELO — Adelaide Crows predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: -5.1
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.