Win Probability
AI Game Review
Collingwood defied the model's 69% prediction for St Kilda — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 144 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 168. Collingwood trailed 37–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 66–78. A tough result for the model — all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
69%
Collingwood
31%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Collingwood carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1540 vs 1475). Recent form favours Collingwood with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for St Kilda. The margin model predicts St Kilda by 2.2 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.80
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.0%
Line / Spread
St Kilda -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+13.0%
Margin Band
St Kilda 1-39 @3.30
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 167.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WLLLL | 102.4 |
Collingwood | WWWWL | 90.8 |
Avg Conceded
73.2
St Kilda
83.5
Collingwood
Avg Margin
5.9
St Kilda
11.1
Collingwood
Disposals
373.3
St Kilda
357.7
Collingwood
Inside 50s
51.2
St Kilda
54.4
Collingwood
ELO–Market Disagreement
Collingwood hold the ELO advantage (1540 vs 1475), but the market favours St Kilda (@1.80).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
St Kilda predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +2.2
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.