Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.5 but the actual margin was 56 points. The game's 194 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 168. Gold Coast SUNS led 71–29 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 56. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 166.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
75%
Geelong Cats
25%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Gold Coast SUNS counter with Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 25-point ELO rating advantage (1500 vs 1475). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 5.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.43
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.3%
Line / Spread
Geelong Cats +14.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+5.3%
Margin Band
Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @2.12
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 77.0 |
Geelong Cats | WWLLL | 81.1 |
Avg Conceded
70.6
Gold Coast SUNS
95.3
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
24.1
Gold Coast SUNS
11.9
Geelong Cats
Disposals
372.2
Gold Coast SUNS
379.5
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
44.0
Gold Coast SUNS
44.3
Geelong Cats
ELO–Market Disagreement
Geelong Cats hold the ELO advantage (1500 vs 1475), but the market favours Gold Coast SUNS (@1.43).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +5.5
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.