Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Western Bulldogs by 8.5 vs the actual margin of 5 points. The game's 217 points came in 49 points higher than the predicted 168. Western Bulldogs trailed 43–40 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 106–111. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
34%
Western Bulldogs
66%
AI Match Overview
Western Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Western Bulldogs carry a 111-point ELO rating advantage (1591 vs 1480). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 8.5 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @2.90
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.7%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +16.5 @1.92
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.7%
Margin Band
Western Bulldogs 1-39 @1.92
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.90
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWLL | 72.6 |
Western Bulldogs | WWLLL | 93.6 |
Avg Conceded
81.6
Brisbane Lions
90.4
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
3.8
Brisbane Lions
20.3
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
359.1
Brisbane Lions
357.8
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.2
Brisbane Lions
44.5
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1591 vs 1480), but the market favours Brisbane Lions (@1.53).
The model sides with ELO — Western Bulldogs predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: -8.5
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