AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Richmond to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 8.7 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 160 — within 4 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
76%
West Coast Eagles
24%
AI Match Overview
Richmond are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Richmond ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Richmond carry a 95-point ELO rating advantage (1187 vs 1092). Recent form favours Richmond with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Richmond by 8.7 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Richmond to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Line / Spread
Richmond -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.3%
Total Points
Under 175.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WLLLL | 64.8 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 65.2 |
Avg Conceded
97.4
Richmond
112.4
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-32.6
Richmond
-47.2
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
339.8
Richmond
308.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Richmond predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +8.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.09
Team Effectiveness
+0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.