AI Game Review
The match ended in a draw (71–71), a rare result the model's 93% forecast for Brisbane Lions didn't account for. The margin model missed here — predicting 34.1 but the actual margin was 0 points. Total score prediction of 145 was close to the actual 142 — within 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 176.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
7%
Brisbane Lions
93%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 543-point ELO rating advantage (1736 vs 1194). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 34.1 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.09
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.1%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.1%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | LLLLL | 72.4 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWL | 94.6 |
Avg Conceded
114.6
North Melbourne
82.8
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-42.2
North Melbourne
11.8
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
358.4
North Melbourne
376.4
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 34 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: -34.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
-0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.