Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
7%
Hawthorn
93%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Hawthorn carry a 323-point ELO rating advantage (1660 vs 1337). The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 45.3 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.1%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +23.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+13.1%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WWWLL | 80.2 |
Hawthorn | WWWLL | 95.8 |
Avg Conceded
83.4
Melbourne
77.8
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
-3.2
Melbourne
18.0
Hawthorn
Disposals
370.4
Melbourne
384.2
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Hawthorn
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 45 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: -45.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.