AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 14.6 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The game's 134 points came in 36 points lower than the predicted 170. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
75%
Sydney Swans
25%
AI Match Overview
Essendon are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Essendon ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Sydney Swans carry a 83-point ELO rating advantage (1518 vs 1435). Recent form favours Essendon with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Essendon by 14.6 points with a combined total of 170.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.7%
Line / Spread
Essendon +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+31.7%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | WWWWL | 75.2 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 87.6 |
Avg Conceded
72.2
Essendon
87.2
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
3.0
Essendon
0.4
Sydney Swans
Disposals
382.4
Essendon
354.2
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Essendon predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 170 · Line: +14.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.12
Team Effectiveness
+0.25
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.