AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 82% probability. The predicted margin of 8.1 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The game's 152 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 168. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
82%
Adelaide Crows
18%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 82%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Adelaide Crows. Adelaide Crows are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Fremantle counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Adelaide Crows carry a 132-point ELO rating advantage (1624 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Fremantle by 8.1 points with a combined total of 168.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.72
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Total Points
Under 177.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWWLL | 94.6 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWLL | 103.4 |
Avg Conceded
74.2
Fremantle
84.4
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
20.4
Fremantle
19.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
351.2
Fremantle
368.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Adelaide Crows
ELO–Market Disagreement
Adelaide Crows hold the ELO advantage (1624 vs 1491), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.72).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
82%
Fremantle predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 168 · Line: +8.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.04
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.