AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 79% probability. The predicted margin of 13.7 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
79%
Geelong Cats
21%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 79%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. The model sees Carlton ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including Midfield ELO, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. Geelong Cats carry a 208-point ELO rating advantage (1705 vs 1497). Recent form favours Geelong Cats with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Carlton by 13.7 points with a combined total of 181.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @2.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Line / Spread
Carlton +7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.5%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WWLLL | 91.0 |
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 88.4 |
Avg Conceded
69.4
Carlton
78.6
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
21.6
Carlton
9.8
Geelong Cats
Disposals
364.6
Carlton
343.8
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
79%
Carlton predicted to win by 14 points
Predicted total: 181 · Line: +13.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.07
Team Effectiveness
+0.34
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.