Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
9%
Fremantle
91%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 91%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Fremantle carry a 317-point ELO rating advantage (1542 vs 1225). Recent form favours Fremantle with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 41.1 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.35
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle +19.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+16.6%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | LLLLL | 61.0 |
Fremantle | WWWLL | 89.0 |
Avg Conceded
100.6
Melbourne
82.2
Fremantle
Avg Margin
-39.6
Melbourne
6.8
Fremantle
Disposals
356.8
Melbourne
358.2
Fremantle
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
Fremantle
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
91%
Fremantle predicted to win by 41 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: -41.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.