AI Game Review
Geelong Cats defied the model's 63% prediction for Hawthorn — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 23.8 but the actual margin was 7 points. Total score prediction of 160 was close to the actual 165 — within 5 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 172.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Geelong Cats
37%
Hawthorn
63%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Geelong Cats are far from out of this at 37%. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Hawthorn counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Geelong Cats. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 23.8 points with a combined total of 160.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.93
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.4%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+11.4%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 100.6 |
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 90.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.6
Geelong Cats
81.2
Hawthorn
Avg Margin
24.0
Geelong Cats
9.6
Hawthorn
Disposals
353.8
Geelong Cats
356.4
Hawthorn
Inside 50s
50.0
Geelong Cats
50.0
Hawthorn
ELO–Market Disagreement
Geelong Cats hold the ELO advantage (1682 vs 1667), but the market favours Hawthorn (@1.93).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
63%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 160 · Line: -23.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.20
Team Effectiveness
-0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.