AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 85% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Brisbane Lions by 24.9 vs the actual margin of 21 points. The game's 215 points came in 51 points higher than the predicted 164. Brisbane Lions trailed 62–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 97–118. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Western Bulldogs
15%
Brisbane Lions
85%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Western Bulldogs. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 198-point ELO rating advantage (1759 vs 1561). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Western Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 24.9 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.52
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.8%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.8%
Total Points
Under 170.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Western Bulldogs | WWLLL | 81.8 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWW | 97.6 |
Avg Conceded
88.8
Western Bulldogs
73.6
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-7.0
Western Bulldogs
24.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
356.2
Western Bulldogs
365.8
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Western Bulldogs
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 25 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: -24.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.03
Team Effectiveness
+0.13
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.