AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 24.2 but the actual margin was 71 points. Total score prediction of 177 was close to the actual 171 — within 6 points. Carlton led 53–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 71. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
75%
West Coast Eagles
25%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Carlton ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO. Carlton carry a 227-point ELO rating advantage (1396 vs 1170). The margin model predicts Carlton by 24.2 points with a combined total of 177.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.12
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Line / Spread
Carlton -40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-14.1%
Total Points
Under 180.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | LLLLL | 64.2 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 63.6 |
Avg Conceded
81.4
Carlton
127.2
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-17.2
Carlton
-63.6
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
358.2
Carlton
302.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Carlton predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 177 · Line: +24.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.51
Team Effectiveness
+0.49
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.