AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 93% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 49.5 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 208 points came in 45 points higher than the predicted 163. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
7%
Brisbane Lions
93%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 93%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Brisbane Lions carry a 553-point ELO rating advantage (1755 vs 1202). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Richmond. The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 49.5 points with a combined total of 163.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.07
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.2%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions +47.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.2%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WLLLL | 67.4 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWW | 93.0 |
Avg Conceded
113.8
Richmond
72.6
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-46.4
Richmond
20.4
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
339.8
Richmond
368.8
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
93%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 49 points
Predicted total: 163 · Line: -49.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.01
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.