AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 56% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.9 but the actual margin was 17 points. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 161 — within 5 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Port Adelaide
44%
St Kilda
56%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Port Adelaide are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. St Kilda carry a 75-point ELO rating advantage (1517 vs 1441). Recent form favours St Kilda with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Port Adelaide. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 3.9 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @2.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+18.9%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide -12.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+18.9%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 75.8 |
St Kilda | WWWWL | 97.6 |
Avg Conceded
88.6
Port Adelaide
88.4
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-12.8
Port Adelaide
9.2
St Kilda
Disposals
365.8
Port Adelaide
378.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Port Adelaide
50.0
St Kilda
ELO–Market Disagreement
St Kilda hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1441), but the market favours Port Adelaide (@1.60).
The model sides with ELO — St Kilda predicted to win despite longer odds.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
St Kilda predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: +3.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.22
Team Effectiveness
-0.11
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.