AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 69.9 was reasonable against the actual 81-point result. GWS GIANTS led 73–22 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 81. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
98%
West Coast Eagles
2%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. GWS GIANTS carry a 446-point ELO rating advantage (1628 vs 1182). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 69.9 points with a combined total of 193.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.02
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -65.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.4%
Total Points
Over 179.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWLLL | 85.4 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 60.2 |
Avg Conceded
79.0
GWS GIANTS
120.6
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
6.4
GWS GIANTS
-60.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
360.0
GWS GIANTS
305.0
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 70 points
Predicted total: 193 · Line: +69.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.20
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.