AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 33.0 but the actual margin was 16 points. Total score prediction of 178 was close to the actual 178 — within 0 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
84%
Western Bulldogs
16%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Western Bulldogs. Western Bulldogs are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Fremantle counter with Forward Line ELO which tips the scales. Western Bulldogs carry a 139-point ELO rating advantage (1608 vs 1469). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Fremantle. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 33.0 points with a combined total of 178.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.65
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+23.6%
Total Points
Over 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WLLLL | 79.8 |
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 85.2 |
Avg Conceded
94.2
Fremantle
81.6
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-14.4
Fremantle
3.6
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
347.8
Fremantle
355.4
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Western Bulldogs
ELO–Market Disagreement
Western Bulldogs hold the ELO advantage (1608 vs 1469), but the market favours Fremantle (@1.65).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
Fremantle predicted to win by 33 points
Predicted total: 178 · Line: +33.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.21
Team Effectiveness
+0.02
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.