AFL | Round 3

alphr.com.au

MEL
Melbourne
VS
GCS
Gold Coast SUNS
MCG • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

66%MelbourneFavourite

Melbourne

66%

Gold Coast SUNS

34%

✨

AI Match Overview

Melbourne are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Gold Coast SUNS. Gold Coast SUNS are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Melbourne counter with Defensive ELO which tips the scales. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 168-point ELO rating advantage (1497 vs 1330). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 3.5 points with a combined total of 176.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Melbourne to Win @2.15

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.5%

✗

Line / Spread

Melbourne +4.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+19.5%

✗

Total Points

Over 167.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Melbourne
WLLLL
73.0
Gold Coast SUNS
WWWLL
93.4

Avg Conceded

84.2

Melbourne

83.0

Gold Coast SUNS

Avg Margin

-11.2

Melbourne

10.4

Gold Coast SUNS

Disposals

358.6

Melbourne

345.4

Gold Coast SUNS

Inside 50s

50.0

Melbourne

50.0

Gold Coast SUNS

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL
1330Overall1497
GCS
ELO difference: -168 in favour of Gold Coast SUNS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1162Midfield1245
Best: 1162GCS +83Best: 1245
1100Forwards1209
Best: 1478GCS +109Best: 1406
1218Defence1204
Best: 1371MEL +14Best: 1306
1228Ruck1443
Best: 1228GCS +215Best: 1443

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL
Stat
GCS
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
73.0pts
Avg Score
93.4pts
84.2pts
Avg Conceded
83.0pts
-11.2pts
Avg Margin
10.4pts
358.6
Disposals
345.4
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
51.8
Tackles
56.8
33.8
Clearances
39.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
SUNS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
SUNS
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
SUNS
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
SUNS
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
Melbourne
6
Scoring Form8.0%
SUNS
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
—

Model Confidence

66%

Melbourne predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 176 · Line: +3.5

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.20

Team Effectiveness

+0.02

5
Elite
1
Hard Worker
6
Efficient
10
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

1/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props