AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Essendon to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.8 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 132 points came in 42 points lower than the predicted 174. Essendon trailed 27–30 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 72–60. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 181.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
53%
Port Adelaide
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Essendon a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Essendon counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 138-point ELO rating advantage (1483 vs 1345). Recent form favours Port Adelaide with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Port Adelaide by 4.8 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @2.25
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.8%
Line / Spread
Port Adelaide +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.8%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | LLLLL | 79.4 |
Port Adelaide | WWLLL | 74.6 |
Avg Conceded
108.8
Essendon
101.8
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-29.4
Essendon
-27.2
Port Adelaide
Disposals
391.8
Essendon
347.0
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
Port Adelaide
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Essendon predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: -4.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.09
Team Effectiveness
+0.32
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.