AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Western Bulldogs to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 13.2 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 154 was close to the actual 158 — within 4 points. Western Bulldogs trailed 47–29 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–83. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
47%
Western Bulldogs
53%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Western Bulldogs a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. The model sees Western Bulldogs ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Western Bulldogs carry a 162-point ELO rating advantage (1590 vs 1428). Recent form favours Western Bulldogs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Western Bulldogs by 13.2 points with a combined total of 154.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Western Bulldogs to Win @1.87
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.8%
Line / Spread
Western Bulldogs +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.8%
Total Points
Under 172.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 74.6 |
Western Bulldogs | WWWLL | 96.2 |
Avg Conceded
74.2
Carlton
75.0
Western Bulldogs
Avg Margin
0.4
Carlton
21.2
Western Bulldogs
Disposals
370.2
Carlton
363.0
Western Bulldogs
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Western Bulldogs
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Western Bulldogs predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 154 · Line: -13.2
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.03
Team Effectiveness
-0.08
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.