AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sydney Swans to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 59.1 was reasonable against the actual 67-point result. The game's 169 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 149. Sydney Swans trailed 42–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 51–118. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
West Coast Eagles
2%
Sydney Swans
98%
AI Match Overview
Sydney Swans are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. West Coast Eagles are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Sydney Swans counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. West Coast Eagles carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1471). Recent form favours West Coast Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts Sydney Swans by 59.1 points with a combined total of 149.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sydney Swans to Win @1.14
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Line / Spread
Sydney Swans +34.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Total Points
Under 168.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
West Coast Eagles | WWWLL | 80.1 |
Sydney Swans | WWLLL | 109.4 |
Avg Conceded
82.3
West Coast Eagles
67.1
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
27.1
West Coast Eagles
15.1
Sydney Swans
Disposals
377.7
West Coast Eagles
364.7
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
57.9
West Coast Eagles
47.7
Sydney Swans
ELO–Market Disagreement
West Coast Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1509 vs 1471), but the market favours Sydney Swans (@1.14).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
Sydney Swans predicted to win by 59 points
Predicted total: 149 · Line: -59.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.19
Team Effectiveness
+0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.