AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 95% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 38.6 but the actual margin was 13 points. The game's 213 points came in 68 points higher than the predicted 145. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
5%
Adelaide Crows
95%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 95%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. Adelaide Crows carry a 621-point ELO rating advantage (1852 vs 1231). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 38.6 points with a combined total of 145.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.18
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows +34.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Total Points
Under 181.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WLLLL | 77.0 |
Adelaide Crows | WWWWW | 97.4 |
Avg Conceded
106.4
North Melbourne
60.4
Adelaide Crows
Avg Margin
-29.4
North Melbourne
37.0
Adelaide Crows
Disposals
355.0
North Melbourne
345.0
Adelaide Crows
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Adelaide Crows
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
95%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 39 points
Predicted total: 145 · Line: -38.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.35
Team Effectiveness
+0.14
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.