Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
80%
Melbourne
20%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 408-point ELO rating advantage (1755 vs 1347). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Melbourne. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 12.0 points with a combined total of 153.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -19.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Total Points
Under 164.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | WWWLL | 86.6 |
Melbourne | WWLLL | 103.4 |
Avg Conceded
66.8
Hawthorn
83.6
Melbourne
Avg Margin
19.8
Hawthorn
19.8
Melbourne
Disposals
380.6
Hawthorn
362.0
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 153 · Line: +12.0
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.05
Team Effectiveness
-0.07
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.