AI Game Review
GWS GIANTS defied the model's 68% prediction for Gold Coast SUNS — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 35 points. The game's 187 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 166. GWS GIANTS led 40–62 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 35. A tough result for the model — all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
68%
GWS GIANTS
32%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over GWS GIANTS. GWS GIANTS are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including Forward Line ELO, Defensive ELO and Scoring Form — but Gold Coast SUNS counter with ELO Difference and Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 135-point ELO rating advantage (1738 vs 1603). The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 5.7 points with a combined total of 166.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.36
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS -18.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Total Points
Under 178.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWWL | 89.0 |
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 98.8 |
Avg Conceded
66.2
Gold Coast SUNS
82.0
GWS GIANTS
Avg Margin
22.8
Gold Coast SUNS
16.8
GWS GIANTS
Disposals
366.6
Gold Coast SUNS
344.6
GWS GIANTS
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
GWS GIANTS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
68%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 166 · Line: +5.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.26
Team Effectiveness
-0.05
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.