AI Game Review
St Kilda defied the model's 69% prediction for Essendon — a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 157 was close to the actual 152 — within 5 points. St Kilda trailed 36–35 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 75–77. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 166.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Essendon
69%
St Kilda
31%
AI Match Overview
Essendon are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over St Kilda. St Kilda are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Essendon counter with overall balance which tips the scales. St Kilda carry a 159-point ELO rating advantage (1379 vs 1220). Recent form favours St Kilda with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Essendon. The margin model predicts Essendon by 2.6 points with a combined total of 157.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Essendon to Win @5.00
Lost ✗
Edge
+48.8%
Line / Spread
Essendon +30.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+48.8%
Total Points
Under 166.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Essendon | LLLLL | 52.4 |
St Kilda | WWWLL | 79.8 |
Avg Conceded
94.0
Essendon
83.2
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-41.6
Essendon
-3.4
St Kilda
Disposals
328.8
Essendon
358.2
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Essendon
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Essendon predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 157 · Line: +2.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.07
Team Effectiveness
+0.36
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.