AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Carlton to win at 89% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 39.1 but the actual margin was 54 points. Total score prediction of 177 was close to the actual 182 — within 5 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
89%
Port Adelaide
11%
AI Match Overview
Carlton are clear favourites here at 89%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Port Adelaide. Port Adelaide are stronger on paper across 3 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO — but Carlton counter with Midfield ELO which tips the scales. Port Adelaide carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1377 vs 1334). The margin model predicts Carlton by 39.1 points with a combined total of 177.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Carlton to Win @1.44
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.5%
Line / Spread
Carlton -14.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+19.5%
Total Points
Over 173.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 69.2 |
Port Adelaide | WLLLL | 64.4 |
Avg Conceded
89.0
Carlton
105.2
Port Adelaide
Avg Margin
-19.8
Carlton
-40.8
Port Adelaide
Disposals
334.0
Carlton
320.8
Port Adelaide
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Port Adelaide
ELO–Market Disagreement
Port Adelaide hold the ELO advantage (1377 vs 1334), but the market favours Carlton (@1.44).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
89%
Carlton predicted to win by 39 points
Predicted total: 177 · Line: +39.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.27
Team Effectiveness
+0.38
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.