AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Adelaide Crows to win at 76% probability. The predicted margin of 14.9 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 115 points came in 52 points lower than the predicted 167. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Adelaide Crows
76%
Collingwood
24%
AI Match Overview
Adelaide Crows are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Collingwood. The model sees Adelaide Crows ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Adelaide Crows carry a 214-point ELO rating advantage (1843 vs 1629). Recent form favours Adelaide Crows with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Adelaide Crows by 14.9 points with a combined total of 167.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Adelaide Crows to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Line / Spread
Adelaide Crows -12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+9.8%
Total Points
Over 156.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Adelaide Crows | WWWWW | 107.4 |
Collingwood | WLLLL | 69.0 |
Avg Conceded
68.8
Adelaide Crows
81.4
Collingwood
Avg Margin
38.6
Adelaide Crows
-12.4
Collingwood
Disposals
345.8
Adelaide Crows
345.2
Collingwood
Inside 50s
50.0
Adelaide Crows
50.0
Collingwood
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Adelaide Crows predicted to win by 15 points
Predicted total: 167 · Line: +14.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
0.00
Team Effectiveness
-0.21
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.