AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 84% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 37.3 but the actual margin was 4 points. The game's 108 points came in 29 points lower than the predicted 137. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Richmond
16%
St Kilda
84%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 84%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Richmond. The model sees St Kilda ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Line ELO and Defensive ELO. St Kilda carry a 165-point ELO rating advantage (1364 vs 1199). The margin model predicts St Kilda by 37.3 points with a combined total of 137.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @1.36
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.8%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.8%
Total Points
Under 162.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Richmond | WWLLL | 56.6 |
St Kilda | WWLLL | 83.4 |
Avg Conceded
83.4
Richmond
91.6
St Kilda
Avg Margin
-26.8
Richmond
-8.2
St Kilda
Disposals
358.6
Richmond
352.0
St Kilda
Inside 50s
50.0
Richmond
50.0
St Kilda
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
84%
St Kilda predicted to win by 37 points
Predicted total: 137 · Line: -37.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.34
Team Effectiveness
-0.03
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.