AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 98% probability. The predicted margin of 59.5 was reasonable against the actual 54-point result. GWS GIANTS led 66–28 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 54. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
GWS GIANTS
98%
North Melbourne
2%
AI Match Overview
GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 98%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over North Melbourne. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Defensive ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 418-point ELO rating advantage (1593 vs 1175). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for North Melbourne. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 59.5 points with a combined total of 202.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
GWS GIANTS to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Line / Spread
GWS GIANTS -46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.5%
Total Points
Over 170.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
GWS GIANTS | WWWWL | 94.4 |
North Melbourne | LLLLL | 67.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.6
GWS GIANTS
113.0
North Melbourne
Avg Margin
17.8
GWS GIANTS
-45.2
North Melbourne
Disposals
352.8
GWS GIANTS
344.0
North Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
GWS GIANTS
50.0
North Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
98%
GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 60 points
Predicted total: 202 · Line: +59.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.15
Team Effectiveness
+0.41
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.