AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 9.3 was reasonable against the actual 19-point result. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Carlton
40%
Gold Coast SUNS
60%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Carlton are far from out of this at 40%. The model sees Gold Coast SUNS ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Gold Coast SUNS carry a 386-point ELO rating advantage (1729 vs 1343). Recent form favours Gold Coast SUNS with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 9.3 points with a combined total of 152.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @1.25
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.7%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +24.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.7%
Total Points
Under 169.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Carlton | WLLLL | 66.2 |
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWWL | 93.4 |
Avg Conceded
93.4
Carlton
66.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Avg Margin
-27.2
Carlton
27.2
Gold Coast SUNS
Disposals
339.0
Carlton
374.4
Gold Coast SUNS
Inside 50s
50.0
Carlton
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 152 · Line: -9.3
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.06
Team Effectiveness
-0.20
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.