AI Game Review
Sydney Swans defied the model's 81% prediction for Brisbane Lions — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 20.7 but the actual margin was 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 168.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Brisbane Lions
81%
Sydney Swans
19%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees Brisbane Lions ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Scoring Form. Brisbane Lions carry a 238-point ELO rating advantage (1732 vs 1494). The margin model predicts Brisbane Lions by 20.7 points with a combined total of 173.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @1.27
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Line / Spread
Brisbane Lions -22.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.3%
Total Points
Over 168.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Brisbane Lions | WWWWL | 93.0 |
Sydney Swans | WWWWL | 79.2 |
Avg Conceded
85.8
Brisbane Lions
75.8
Sydney Swans
Avg Margin
7.2
Brisbane Lions
3.4
Sydney Swans
Disposals
365.2
Brisbane Lions
354.6
Sydney Swans
Inside 50s
50.0
Brisbane Lions
50.0
Sydney Swans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 21 points
Predicted total: 173 · Line: +20.7
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.30
Team Effectiveness
+0.16
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.