Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Melbourne
97%
West Coast Eagles
3%
AI Match Overview
Melbourne are clear favourites here at 97%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over West Coast Eagles. The model sees Melbourne ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Melbourne carry a 301-point ELO rating advantage (1325 vs 1024). Recent form favours Melbourne with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for West Coast Eagles. The margin model predicts Melbourne by 55.5 points with a combined total of 200.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Melbourne to Win @1.06
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.2%
Line / Spread
Melbourne -48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.2%
Total Points
Over 176.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Melbourne | WLLLL | 88.2 |
West Coast Eagles | LLLLL | 61.0 |
Avg Conceded
90.2
Melbourne
103.4
West Coast Eagles
Avg Margin
-2.0
Melbourne
-42.4
West Coast Eagles
Disposals
357.4
Melbourne
328.4
West Coast Eagles
Inside 50s
50.0
Melbourne
50.0
West Coast Eagles
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
97%
Melbourne predicted to win by 56 points
Predicted total: 200 · Line: +55.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.23
Team Effectiveness
+0.40
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.