AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Fremantle to win at 71% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Fremantle by 23.4 vs the actual margin of 27 points. Total score prediction of 155 was close to the actual 161 — within 6 points. Fremantle trailed 25–49 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 94–67. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Fremantle
71%
Carlton
29%
AI Match Overview
Fremantle are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. The model sees Fremantle ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. Fremantle carry a 308-point ELO rating advantage (1663 vs 1355). Recent form favours Fremantle with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Fremantle by 23.4 points with a combined total of 155.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Fremantle to Win @1.10
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.6%
Line / Spread
Fremantle -37.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-19.6%
Total Points
Over 151.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Fremantle | WWWWL | 89.2 |
Carlton | WLLLL | 64.8 |
Avg Conceded
76.4
Fremantle
96.6
Carlton
Avg Margin
12.8
Fremantle
-31.8
Carlton
Disposals
332.4
Fremantle
324.4
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Fremantle
50.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Fremantle predicted to win by 23 points
Predicted total: 155 · Line: +23.4
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.45
Team Effectiveness
-0.36
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.