AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Brisbane Lions to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.9 but the actual margin was 27 points. Total score prediction of 161 was close to the actual 157 — within 4 points. Brisbane Lions led 45–46 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 27. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 165.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Collingwood
42%
Brisbane Lions
58%
AI Match Overview
Brisbane Lions hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Collingwood are far from out of this at 42%. Collingwood are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but Brisbane Lions counter with Recent Win Rate and Scoring Form which tips the scales. Collingwood carry a 118-point ELO rating advantage (1784 vs 1666). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Collingwood. The margin model predicts Collingwood by 7.9 points with a combined total of 161.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Brisbane Lions to Win @2.68
Winner ✓
Edge
+20.9%
Line / Spread
Collingwood -11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+20.9%
Total Points
Under 165.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Collingwood | WWWLL | 87.4 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWL | 93.0 |
Avg Conceded
64.6
Collingwood
83.0
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
22.8
Collingwood
10.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
369.2
Collingwood
365.6
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Collingwood
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Brisbane Lions predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 161 · Line: +7.9
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.02
Team Effectiveness
-0.59
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.