AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Hawthorn to win at 94% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 51.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 146 points came in 40 points lower than the predicted 186. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 40+ margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Hawthorn
94%
Carlton
6%
AI Match Overview
Hawthorn are clear favourites here at 94%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Carlton. The model sees Hawthorn ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate. Hawthorn carry a 307-point ELO rating advantage (1673 vs 1366). Recent form favours Hawthorn with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Carlton. The margin model predicts Hawthorn by 51.5 points with a combined total of 186.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Hawthorn to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.9%
Line / Spread
Hawthorn -25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.9%
Total Points
Over 161.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Hawthorn | WWWWL | 88.4 |
Carlton | WLLLL | 67.2 |
Avg Conceded
61.8
Hawthorn
96.4
Carlton
Avg Margin
26.6
Hawthorn
-29.2
Carlton
Disposals
358.8
Hawthorn
335.0
Carlton
Inside 50s
50.0
Hawthorn
50.0
Carlton
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
94%
Hawthorn predicted to win by 52 points
Predicted total: 186 · Line: +51.5
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.10
Team Effectiveness
+0.18
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.