AFL | Round 20

alphr.com.au

GWS
GWS GIANTS
VS
SYD
Sydney Swans
ENGIE STADIUM • TUESDAY 24 FEB, 10:45 PM

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted GWS GIANTS to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 10.5 but the actual margin was 44 points. Total score prediction of 164 was close to the actual 160 — within 4 points. GWS GIANTS trailed 22–50 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 102–58. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability

AI Win Probability

77%GWS GIANTSFavourite

GWS GIANTS

77%

Sydney Swans

23%

✨

AI Match Overview

GWS GIANTS are clear favourites here at 77%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sydney Swans. The model sees GWS GIANTS ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Recent Win Rate and Forward Line ELO. GWS GIANTS carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1658 vs 1517). Recent form favours GWS GIANTS with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Sydney Swans. The margin model predicts GWS GIANTS by 10.5 points with a combined total of 164.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

GWS GIANTS to Win @1.45

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.9%

✓

Line / Spread

GWS GIANTS -14.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+7.9%

✓

Total Points

Under 166.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+2.6%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
GWS GIANTS
WWWWW
107.8
Sydney Swans
WWWWL
87.4

Avg Conceded

77.6

GWS GIANTS

76.0

Sydney Swans

Avg Margin

30.2

GWS GIANTS

11.4

Sydney Swans

Disposals

366.0

GWS GIANTS

344.6

Sydney Swans

Inside 50s

50.0

GWS GIANTS

50.0

Sydney Swans

H2H History (Last 5)Sydney Swans lead 5-0
Apr 2025GWS 73 - 87 SYD
Sep 2024GWS 82 - 88 SYD
Jun 2024GWS 75 - 102 SYD
Apr 2024GWS 69 - 98 SYD
Aug 2023GWS 85 - 96 SYD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

GWS
1658Overall1517
SYD
ELO difference: +141 in favour of GWS GIANTS

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1189Midfield1233
Best: 1238SYD +44Best: 1309
1198Forwards1089
Best: 1323GWS +109Best: 1308
1286Defence1211
Best: 1511GWS +74Best: 1411
1205Ruck1508
Best: 1205SYD +304Best: 1508

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

GWS
Stat
SYD
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
4.0
107.8pts
Avg Score
87.4pts
77.6pts
Avg Conceded
76.0pts
30.2pts
Avg Margin
11.4pts
366.0
Disposals
344.6
50.0
Inside 50s
50.0
54.2
Tackles
67.4
37.8
Clearances
40.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
GIANTS
2
Midfield ELO11.0%
Swans
3
Recent Win Rate10.0%
GIANTS
4
Forward Line ELO9.0%
GIANTS
5
Defensive ELO8.0%
GIANTS
6
Scoring Form8.0%
GIANTS
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
GIANTS

Model Confidence

77%

GWS GIANTS predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 164 · Line: +10.5

Player Work Effort

Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)

Team Effort

-0.03

Team Effectiveness

+0.06

8
Elite
2
Hard Worker
5
Efficient
7
Poor Game
Sort:

Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.

3/3 predictions correct
Coming Soon

Goal Scorer Predictions

AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.

First / Anytime / Last ScorerPlayer Props