AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Gold Coast SUNS to win at 86% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 24.1 but the actual margin was 66 points. The game's 194 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 164. Gold Coast SUNS led 63–30 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Gold Coast SUNS
86%
Brisbane Lions
14%
AI Match Overview
Gold Coast SUNS are clear favourites here at 86%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Brisbane Lions. Brisbane Lions are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Recent Win Rate — but Gold Coast SUNS counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Brisbane Lions carry a 192-point ELO rating advantage (1790 vs 1597). Recent form favours Brisbane Lions with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Gold Coast SUNS. The margin model predicts Gold Coast SUNS by 24.1 points with a combined total of 164.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Gold Coast SUNS to Win @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.4%
Line / Spread
Gold Coast SUNS +10.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+46.4%
Total Points
Over 154.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Gold Coast SUNS | WWWLL | 86.6 |
Brisbane Lions | WWWWL | 99.4 |
Avg Conceded
87.0
Gold Coast SUNS
78.4
Brisbane Lions
Avg Margin
-0.4
Gold Coast SUNS
21.0
Brisbane Lions
Disposals
353.8
Gold Coast SUNS
360.6
Brisbane Lions
Inside 50s
50.0
Gold Coast SUNS
50.0
Brisbane Lions
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
86%
Gold Coast SUNS predicted to win by 24 points
Predicted total: 164 · Line: +24.1
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.21
Team Effectiveness
+0.43
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.