AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted St Kilda to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting St Kilda by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The game's 189 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 172. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-39 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
St Kilda
66%
Geelong Cats
34%
AI Match Overview
St Kilda are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Geelong Cats. Geelong Cats are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Midfield ELO and Forward Line ELO — but St Kilda counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Geelong Cats carry a 253-point ELO rating advantage (1692 vs 1440). The margin model predicts St Kilda by 4.6 points with a combined total of 172.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
St Kilda to Win @3.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+37.1%
Line / Spread
St Kilda +20.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+37.1%
Total Points
Under 173.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
St Kilda | WWWLL | 78.6 |
Geelong Cats | WWWLL | 125.4 |
Avg Conceded
94.6
St Kilda
80.0
Geelong Cats
Avg Margin
-16.0
St Kilda
45.4
Geelong Cats
Disposals
367.4
St Kilda
355.0
Geelong Cats
Inside 50s
50.0
St Kilda
50.0
Geelong Cats
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
St Kilda predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 172 · Line: +4.6
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
+0.17
Team Effectiveness
+0.33
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.