Quarter-by-Quarter Win Probability
AI Win Probability
North Melbourne
85%
Melbourne
15%
AI Match Overview
North Melbourne are clear favourites here at 85%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Melbourne. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Melbourne carry a 184-point ELO rating advantage (1442 vs 1258). The margin model predicts North Melbourne by 17.8 points with a combined total of 174.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
North Melbourne to Win @3.10
Winner ✓
Edge
+52.3%
Line / Spread
North Melbourne +16.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+52.3%
Total Points
Under 176.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+2.6%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
North Melbourne | WLLLL | 74.4 |
Melbourne | WLLLL | 71.6 |
Avg Conceded
120.0
North Melbourne
81.2
Melbourne
Avg Margin
-45.6
North Melbourne
-9.6
Melbourne
Disposals
359.4
North Melbourne
351.2
Melbourne
Inside 50s
50.0
North Melbourne
50.0
Melbourne
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
85%
North Melbourne predicted to win by 18 points
Predicted total: 174 · Line: +17.8
Player Work Effort
Per-minute effort vs effectiveness (vs personal average)Team Effort
-0.27
Team Effectiveness
+0.40
Effort = pressure acts + tackles + contested possessions per minute on field, z-scored vs career avg. Effectiveness = disposal efficiency + fantasy/min + score involvements − errors, z-scored vs career avg.
Goal Scorer Predictions
AI-powered goal scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.